Research Article Open Access

Study the outbreak and end characteristics of epidemic and social transmission from the perspective of data

Abstract

Objective: from the perspective of data, this paper discusses the characteristics of the outbreak and ends of epidemic diseases and social communication, and provides a new idea for the research of epidemic diseases and social communication, which is important for understanding the characteristics of epidemic diseases and formulating more effective epidemic prevention measures.

Method: This paper starts from the perspective of data, based on the theory of complex networks, analyses the collected data related to influenza, measles and COVID-19, and draws on the epidemic transmission theory to study the characteristics of the spread and end of the epidemic from the perspective of data, and successively explores the hysteresis loop phenomenon The estimation method of news dissemination potential in social media and the influence of susceptibility and contact matrix on the spread and control of COVID-19.

Results/Conclusion: The results show that the outbreak process and the end process of epidemic transmission are asymmetric, and the area of hysteresis loop is paradoxically dependent on parameters in the state space and parameter space. A theoretical derivation method of effective reproduction number in public opinion communication is proposed. Using this method can help people judge the propagation potential of events and provide theoretical guidance for formulating effective control strategies. The numerical simulation results obtained through the SIR model prove that the changes in susceptibility and contact matrix have a great impact on the transmission of COVID-19, which is the main reason for the age and gender heterogeneity in cases. Our research shows that there are age and gender differences in the transmission of COVID-19, which is important to develop more effective epidemic prevention measures.

Nana Zhang*, Shuhaida Md. Noor, Wenxu Yang

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